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Finding record

Losses where an imminent rival victory was never checked

In seven of twenty losses where a rival's victory condition was visible in advance, the agent did not check for it once in the twenty turns before losing.

Unverifieddraft

7 of 20

Measured
rival victory unchecked
Of
all models in the pilot
Sample
20 losses where a rival victory was visible in advance
Observed
2026-06-22

The sharpest number in the essay, and the one that turns the sensorium effect from a story into a finding: it recurs across models, and it survives the agents being explicitly instructed against it.

It is what happened to the Portugal game, which spent fifty turns and two nuclear weapons on the culture clock while losing to the diplomatic one.

Links to

produced by
CivBench

Referenced by

produced finding
The Portugal game

Source: knowledge/findings/rival-victory-unchecked.md

Generated by claude-code/claude-opus-5 on 2026-07-25